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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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market analysis
【XM Decision Analysis】--USD/BRL Analysis: Big Traders Want Clarity as Price Realm Tightens
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Decision Analysis】--USD/BRL Analysis: Big Traders Want Clarity as Price Realm Tightens". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Consolidation has been prevalent in the USD/BRL the past handful of days, this as Brazilian financial institutions are clearly waiting for more trade insights before they decide to begin igniting their cash forward positions.
The USD/BRL closed near the 5.5647 ratio yesterday. Last week at this time the currency pair was around the 5.5650 value. Financial institutions are clearly remaining cautious regarding their USD/BRL positions as they wait for news to develop regarding the ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S and Brazil.
While the USD has resumed its weaker stance in Forex the past couple of days and other major currencies have gained, the Brazilian Real has essentially stood in place. Yes, it can be argued the USD/BRL is still maintaining the more bearish aspects of its mid-term range, but large traders clearly do not want to lean too heavily into their outlooks regarding the Brazilian Real for the moment.
Consolidation and Speculative Positions
Trading the USD/BRL needs to be done carefully. The tight price realm which has developed the past week could break at any moment. Until then speculators certainly have an opportunity to try and pursue technical changes in value which tests the near-term technical range, but this could prove dangerous because the USD/BRL doesn’t have a lot of volume and patience and overnight trading might be necessary. But also, when the USD/BRL breaks its current consolidation the currency pair may become fast and volatile.
This morning’s announcement that Japan has reached a trade agreement with the U.S will likely not help Brazil. Japan’s tariff discussions were largely based on economic details and price duties which the U.S wanted to make more favorable. The talks between the U.S and Brazil unfortunately also consists of political disagreements. A trade deal between Brazil and the U.S would certainly help financial institutions become more optimistic about Brazil’s economic outlook.
USD/BRL and Things That Could Go Wrong
President Trump and President Lula da Silva are not friends. There is a chance that Brazil will not be able to meet the 1st of August deadline. If a trade agreement is not achieved, the question becomes how the U.S and Brazil will act, more acrimony is possible between the two nations. If things go wrong within the trade negotiations, financial institutions will have to consider their outlook for the Brazilian Real and how it could be affected by hyper aggressive tariff threats.
- Having produced a rather tight trading range the USD/BRL may have the ability to correlate with the broad Forex more even if no trade deal is signed.
- But if things become loud between the U.S and Brazil a move higher in the USD/BRL would not be a surprise.
- However, and importantly, for the moment polite trading is being seen in the USD/BRL.
- Financial institutions are clearly not leaning into their cash positions with great strength – thus the consolidation.
- Day traders should be careful and the lack of big moves in the USD/BRL for the moment is a big warning sign.
Brazilian Real Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 5.5675
Current Support: 5.5575
High Target: 5.5900
Low Target: 5.5420
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